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Saturday, January 29, 2011

Father, son and the holy vote

Delhi University Students' Union (DUSU): Students' Unions can not be banned

Naresh Nunna reviews Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy's political play called 'Condolence Tour' and finds him slipping against a seasoned K. Rosaiah and an adamant Congress High Command

Y. S. Jaganmohan Reddy (Jagan) keeps repeating that his Odarpu Yatra (Condolence Tour) is merely a 'personal tour', which the party and the government have nothing to do with. But the cause of Jagan's dissidence is too obvious. The plans of this Kadapa MP, the only legal heir of the late Y. S. Rajasekhara Reddy who was killed in a helicopter crash in Nallamalla forest in last September, to step into his father's shoes were dumped aside by the Congress High Command. But, Jagan, with his many business ventures, some known and many unseen, needs a lot of government support. In other words, he must be at the helm of the government to run those ventures uninterruptedly.

Thus, frustrated by the High Command's stubborn reluctance to make him the chief minister, Jagan has been allegedly planning major political disturbance to dethrone K. Rosaiah, trying to prove the latter as inefficient.

'The real strategic role of chief minister K. Rosaiah lies in provoking stone pelting openly,' sources close to the chief minister told TSI under the condition of anonymity. Rosaiah, a 76-year-old veteran with five decades of political experience and a man who has introduced the state budget 16 times, including seven in a row (a record in the country), is apparently weak and an abiding loyalist of the High Command. With the same visible weakness, he started poking Jagan silently, leading the High Command to take a dig at Jagan.

After taking over the reins of the state after YSR's sudden demise, Rosaiah shunted out bureaucrats and police officials close to his predecessor. Major among them was the replacement of V. Rajagopal, director of mining and chairman of Andhra Pradesh Mineral Development Corporation (APMDC), with an IAS officer Praveen Prakash. Rosaiah also transferred another senior IAS officer, Y. Srilakshmi, secretary in industries and commerce department, who was handpicked by YSR and entrusted with key task of handling mining lease and licences. Both Rajagopal and Srilakshmi allegedly aided and abetted YSR's kith and kin, as most of the galaxy mines of Prakasam district and Barites mines in Kadapa district are in their control. YSR's close aide and later the mining minister of AP, Balineni Srinivasa Reddy, YSR's co-brother Y. V. Subba Reddy, YSR's nephew Dushyant Reddy, Raghava Reddy of Midwest Company, Koneru Prasad and a few other luminaries of the mining world have been often accused by opposition parties for illegal mining. The loot during the YSR tenure was estimated by opposition parties to be worth a whopping Rs 75,000 crore.

Rosaiah made the department levy heavy penalties on YSR's kith and kin i.e. of Jagan following fresh enquires into the old irregularities. It was the last straw and Jagan trained his guns directly on Rosaiah. Meanwhile, Rosaiah silently leaked truce proposals from the Jagan camp to national dailies, including The Hindu. Rosaiah also added fuel to the fire with his direct interaction with the High Command during his visits to Delhi. Thus, the subtle tactics of Rosaiah made Jagan wage a direct war not only with Rosaiah but also with the High Command. Rosaiah was also successful to wean away Jagan's loyal cadre in the state Cabinet. Several ministers in the Rosaiah Cabinet used to call on Jagan whenever the latter visited city. The shift of loyalty is clearly evident when a section of YSR loyal ministers made a scathing attack on Jagan, countering the latter's remarks on Rosaiah. The ministers accused Jagan of amassing thousands of crores of rupees in a short span. The ministers and some MLAs have understood this and are gradually isolating him. Father, son and the holy vote Jagan's condolence tour is meant to console the families of those who died after the demise of his father. It has drawn serious flak from the Telangana agitators as Jagan claimed himself as a pro-United Andhra leader. The Congress High Command has issued a 'no yatra' writ which Jagan defied, asserting that his tour had no political overtures. However, the police arrested Jagan and put an end to the drama on the grounds of a law and order problem. So, in a do-or-die situation, Jagan has initiated the next phase of his tour on his father's birth anniversary i.e July 8 from the northern coastal region of Srikakulam with multiple political aims. First among them is to understand the real strength of the 'YSR constituency' and flaunting the same before the High Command. The YSR constituency refers to the number of loyal voters of YSR. Jagan wants to assess the size of that loyal constituency and weigh the chances of transfer of that votebank to him.

'It is difficult to statistically separate the loyalty of the voters between the party and the individual leader,' senior journalist Ashok Tankasala told TSI. In the 2009 elections, the Congress won 33 MP seats. Each MP constituency has 7 Assembly segments, but the party won only 156 Assembly segments.

'If YSR's charisma was the reason for the Congress party's success, the party should have won more than 230 Assembly segments or at least 200 seats. The empirical evidence further shows that the difference between the victorious Congress and defeated TDP was only 1.8 per cent votes. If one factors in Chiranjeevi, whose PRP party obtained 16.22 per cent of the total votes, had not been present, the results would have definitely been different,' another analyst said.

'Jagan is able to mobilise people due to the power of his money which is in abundance,' Rajya Sabha member V. Hanumantha Rao told TSI. Some senior Congress leaders also alleged that many lorries were and trucks were engaged to transport people and that the Jagan camp was pumping in enough money to make his Odarpu Yatra a grand show.

'Chiranjeevi, in terms of crowd pulling ability, definitely supersedes anyone else. But, drawing crowds does not mean that will translate into votes,' veteran Congress leader Palvayi Govardhan Reddy told TSI.

Political analysts are sensing a haste in Jagan towards floating a regional party or towards creating a fissure in the state Congress with a YSR-loyal faction. If his 'dissident' act (yatra) provokes any disciplinary action from the Congress High Command, Jagan is ready to portray it as the Congress party's ungratefulness towards his father. But veteran strategist Rosaiah and the High Command has made Veerappa Moiley, the party's AP affairs in-charge, a close confidant of the Jagan camp, announce the suspension note of loquacious Rambabu Ambati. Enthralled by the versatility of the drama, the media swarmed around a seemingly disgruntled Jagan and sought his reaction on the 'warning' from the High Command. 'God is there and above all my father's blessings are there,' Jagan replied, indicating a fierce battle ahead.

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